Founders Summit: assumptions and decisions
Notes to my Test A submission: what I assumed, the numbers behind Part 2, and what I'd confirm first. All links are on the sources page.
Legend: F = fact from the brief · S = sourced market rate · E = my estimate (built from sourced rates where possible)
1. Assumptions
| # | Assumption | Type | If it's wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Today is Thu 29 Oct; the summit is Thu 3 to Fri 4 Dec | E | Every date shifts with it |
| A2 | The founder's "Friday" is Fri 30 Oct | E | I ask for her pick by Friday 10 am |
| A3 | Final catering headcount is due Thu 12 Nov | F ("14 days"); date via A1 | The hard deadline for the guest number |
| A4 | The keynote and the VIP dinner are both on night one | E | If not, they don't compete for the evening |
| A5 | The venue's 260 counts guests only, not staff, speakers or booth crews | E | If it counts everyone, we stay at 250 |
| A6 | The $38,000 catering line may exclude tax and service, so I price extra guests at $152 to $208 each ($152 × 1.24 service × 1.1025 tax) | E | If it includes them, extra guests cost less |
| A7 | The fourth sponsor's verbal deal has no defined package yet | E | I ask the Production Lead once, in my handoff note |
| A8 | 6 pm works for the venue and the keynote speaker | E | I come back with the nearest time that does |
| A9 | Cancellation terms: published samples charge 50% to 85% at 30 to 59 days out and 80 to 100% inside 30 days. I use 50% as the best case | E | At 85%, Option B before 3 Nov is $16,850 to $19,650 over budget. The actual contract decides |
| A10 | Moving the keynote to 6 pm adds about two hours beyond the venue's and crew's contracted time | E | If the contract already runs late, the $3,500 shrinks or disappears |
2. The numbers in Part 2
| Item | Number | How | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| +10 guests | About $2,000 | 10 × $152 to $208 = $1,520 to $2,080 | E |
| Keynote at 6 pm | About $3,500 | 2 extra hours: AV crew 5 × 2 h × $45 to $65 × 1.5 overtime = $675 to $975 (S rates); room 2 h × $500 = $1,000 (S); venue staff and security 6 × 2 h × $60 = $720 (E); photo or video 2 h × $245 to $345 = $490 to $690 (S). Total $2,885 to $3,385, rounded up | E |
| Founder approval needed now | About $5,500 | $2,000 + $3,500, over her $5,000 limit; keeps the $3,000 contingency for the AV quote | E |
| VIP dinner for 40, restaurant | About $11,000 to $13,000 | Firstborn's $8,000 weekday minimum × 1.24 (20% service and 4% surcharge, rates from a comparable LA restaurant) × 1.1025 tax = $10,937, plus about $2,000 drinks | S minimum, E rest |
| Sponsor fee for "dinner presented by" | At least $15,000 | Priced on value to the sponsor (40 VIPs), never below cost; the founder approves | E |
| Backup dinner if the sponsor doesn't sign | About $7,000 | Rustic Canyon (Santa Monica): 40 × $90 × 1.24 × 1.1125 (11.25% tax) = $4,966, plus drinks: 40 × $40 × 1.24 × 1.1125 = $2,207 | S rate, E drinks |
| Option B, cancel before Tue 3 Nov | About $1,000 to $4,000 over budget (best case, see A9) | 50% cancellation ($22,500) + new 300-person venue ($16,000) + 50 more guests ($7,600 to $10,400), minus the $45,000 venue budget = $1,100 to $3,900 | E |
| Option B, cancel after 3 Nov | About $15,000 to $26,500 over budget | Same, with 80 to 100% cancellation ($36,000 to $45,000) = $14,600 to $26,400 | E |
Option B's figures exclude the keynote and dinner (same as Option A), and anything the new venue adds (food and drink minimums, in-house catering or AV) and any fee for changing the catering contract.
3. Decisions
| Decision | Why |
|---|---|
| Recommend Option A | 260 fits the venue. Option B is affordable only if we cancel within days, in peak December season, and it means redoing the floor plan and every sponsor booth |
| Offer the fourth sponsor the VIP dinner, not the keynote | A sponsor's name on the founder's keynote is her call, so it's a separate yes or no. Before any offer, I check the signed sponsors' contracts for exclusivity |
| Keep the contingency for AV | The AV quote is still missing, so the extra guests and keynote are approved as new spend instead |
| Sponsor complaint: the sponsor first, the founder briefed within minutes | They're deciding whether to pull out; the founder was copied, so she hears my plan straight away |
| Headliner: confirm with the agent, then the founder first | She never hears bad news from someone else, and she gets it with a plan already moving |
4. Fallback plans
If the fourth sponsor doesn't sign by Fri 6 Nov:
- Offer the dinner to the signed sponsors, only where their contracts allow it.
- Downsize to a family-style dinner or a VIP reception (about $7,000), with her OK.
- She funds the restaurant dinner (about $11,000 to $13,000), approved in writing.
- If she declines, drop the dinner early, so no VIP is invited to something we can't deliver.
If she chooses Option B:
- Get the extra budget approved in writing the same day.
- Hold a 300-person venue and confirm it before cancelling ours. Go or no-go on Mon 2 Nov: if no venue is confirmed by then, we stay at 260, unless she approves the higher cost of $15,000 to $26,500 in writing.
- Ask our venue to move the deposit to a future event instead of a cancellation fee.
- Check whether catering can move with us, and at what cost.
- Lock every sponsor's booth on the new floor plan, in writing, before telling guests.
5. Week-one checks
- Venue contract: hours, overtime rate, cancellation schedule, and whether 260 includes staff.
- AV quote: chase today and request two backup quotes from the vendor bench.
- Whether the catering line includes tax and service.
- The three signed sponsors' contracts: exclusivity and booth positions.
- The headliner's contract and the backup speaker shortlist.
- Courtesy holds on both dinner rooms (Firstborn and Rustic Canyon) now, since 3 Dec is peak holiday season.